Russia’s public finances appear tighter in the latest budget proposal, despite the Kremlin’s claims that the economy is holding up. According to the draft, the deficit in 2027 would be 2.2 percent of gross domestic product, equal to roughly 5.5 trillion rubles in missing revenue for the state.

The figures suggest that military spending and other government outlays will continue to rely heavily on borrowing or other financing arrangements. Heikki Mulari says the Kremlin’s picture of a strong Russian economy is only an illusion, even as officials insist there is enough money to keep fighting.

The estimate matters because it gives a rare numerical snapshot of the pressure on Russia’s state budget. If the forecast holds, the government will have to cover a multibillion-euro gap at a time when the war has already reduced its room to maneuver.