Concerns about possible Russian escalation against NATO are back in focus as Moscow’s war in Ukraine has slowed and its military faces a manpower shortage. Speaking on the War on the Rocks podcast, researcher Dara Massicot said such fears often return when Russia is doing badly on the front line.

Massicot also pointed to Ukraine’s gains from its long-range drone strikes, which have increased pressure on Russia. That combination is fuelling speculation about what kind of wider response the Kremlin might consider, although no concrete escalation has been confirmed.