The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War says Russia could try to seize Narva in Estonia through a limited operation that escalates quickly. The analysis describes a possible course of action, not evidence that an attack is being prepared.

According to ISW, the scenario is meant to show how Moscow might test NATO’s ability to respond rapidly to a localized crisis. Narva sits on Estonia’s border with Russia, which gives the city added strategic weight in any discussion of regional security.

The think tank’s point is less about predicting an imminent move and more about warning how pressure could be applied to the alliance without a full-scale invasion. ISW does not say such an operation is underway, only that it is a possible scenario.